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- The age of open source politics is here. Lobbyists and special interests have run Arizona for too long.

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    Wall Street Journal Poll puts Pederson in striking distance, I'm suspicious.

    by: TimO

    Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 01:19:13 AM MDT


    ( - promoted by TimO)

    In the latest War Street Journal Battleground States Poll, Pederson has closed the gap to within 4 points  with a 3.7% margin of error. This is way closer than any of the previous polls. They have Kyl at 48.3% and Pederson at 44.2%.

    What is odd about the short analysis is they say "Arizona's senate race is shaping up to be a GOP hold. Jon Kyl has maintained his modest (lead) over Democratic State Chairman Jim Pederson -- though he is again polling under 50%."

    Then below the show two previous polls which show a Kyl rout!

    Rassmussen (07/18) Kyl 53% Pederson 34%
    ASU (06/15-18) Kyl 43% Pederson 29%

    So the gap is closing dramatically, but it's "shaping up to be a GOP hold"? I don't get it!?!

    Frankly, I didn't think it was that close yet. I've talked to people through phone banking, at Dem. meetings and personal friends, and whenever you bring up Pederson you get odd looks.

    "When is Pederson going to start campaigning?"
    "I don't know about Pederson, I don't know what he's about."

    I was phone banking in Tempe and there were four questions gauging support for our canadidates.
    "Would you reelect Janet? Would you vote for Terry Goddard? Would you vote for Jim Pederson? Will you support the initiative to raise the minimum wage?"

    All the Dems, love Janet! All the Dems support minimum wage increase. Terry Goddard? Yea I think so.

    Jim Pederson? One emphatic, "No Way!" and the rest of the respondents said, "When is he going to start campaigning?"

    Somebody brew some coffee and get down to Pederson head quarters! They need to get out and kiss some babies!

    I did see him at Tempe Town Lake on the 4th of July, and he did get out for the "Wake up Walmart!" Rally, but other than die hard Dem activists and blog junkies, average Arizonans don't even know events like the Walmart gig are going on.

    Maybe he can sit in a dunk tank at the State Fair?

    I saw Kyl's ad on "Meet the Press" this morning, but no Pederson ad; unless I missed it, but I don't think I moved my ass from the recliner the whole show! (By the way Pumpkinhead Russert spent way too much time on a minor gaffe Mayor of NOLA, Ray Nagin made regarding "Ground Zero". Don't be an idiot Tim!)

    Pederson's Calender of Events is pathetic! It has one phone banking event in August and the next event listed is ELECTION DAY! November 7th! WTF?

    I hope he's hiding out cramming for some debates, because if he's not, I don't know what he's doing!

    TimO :: Wall Street Journal Poll puts Pederson in striking distance, I'm suspicious.
    Tags: , , , (All Tags)
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    Get down in the dirt and DIG Pederson! (0.00 / 0)
    I saw a Jim Pederson ad. It was all about health care. He's ignoring the gorilla in the room, Iraq, and I don't think it's gonna work. He is seeming like just another spineless Dem and if he wins, it'll be because people are so incredibly fed up with Rethugs. I wish Leonard Clark or the other guy, Van??? would have at least got enough signatures to force the issue on Pederson. He doesn't seem to be willing to get dirty.

    "Land of the fee, home of the wage slave" Douglas R. Hotchkiss

    methodology (0.00 / 0)
    Don't put much stock in this latest poll.  It was conducted by Zogby Interactive, the online wing of the Zogby outfit.  While their telephone polls are usually pretty reliable, the online versions have yet to be validated.  They are consistent outliers compared with other polling outfits.  Just look at the comparison polls listed at the WSJ page on this race.  Given the campaign that Pederson's been running (or lack thereof), it's unlikely that he moved up 10 points in a month.  It's certainly possible, but the conditions on the ground don't bear it out.  I'll believe these poll numbers when a couple of other independent firms confirm them.

    I agree and changed my headline. (0.00 / 0)
    It's not like there is any buzz about Pederson out there to give you the feeling that there has been any movement. The only explanation for a Pederson gain would be independents making up their minds for a change in Washington.

    Kyl is all over the press like white on rice! Editorials, letters to the editor, etc. and the Arizona Republican is being quite accomodating. If I were Pederson's campaign manager I would pull a play out of the Rove playbook and start attacking the AZ Repug for conservative bias or at least demand equal time.

    Work the refs a little Jim!


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